In his lecture, Richard Shweder identified three major prophecies of the shape of a new world order. The first is the theory that liberal democracy is the final point of ideological evolution. This theory explains that all civilizations in the world have been searching for and evolving to fulfill what can be considered an 'ideal civilization', such as the United States in the 2nd half of the twentieth century. This thought is also called the Washington Consensus. The second prophecy is the return of the ideologically divided world, where countries coexist and compete with each other in the global arena. Shweder mentions that the most homogeneous countries are the most egalitarian, that is, the more culturally 'pure' a community is relates to how well it functions. He also points out that globalization brings about ideological conversions, such as technological advancements, but certain ideologies are more effective in certain countries. The third prophecy is there will be a return to a global empire that utilizes the better aspects of the Ottoman Empire. This incredibly diverse empire, Shweder explained, only collected taxes and prevented people from encroaching on other people's territories. Most civilizations throughout the history of the world have used empirical systems, and the modern nation-state is merely an exception, and not the rule. Indications of global change can be found in patterns of trade and ideological pressure. Countries that are both wealthy and dedicated to the spread and implementation of their political and economic ideology, like the United States, have immense impact on patterns of commerce. Refusal to trade with countries that don't share our values, like Cuba, could persuade countries out of becoming communist. Financial aid for countries who choose to implement democracies and capitalism could also be a strong selling point for poor countries. Also, historically speaking, patterns of global change throughout history could demonstrate the future. Another indicator would be the introduction of substitutes that would decrease a countries dependence on trade with another country. An example of this is United States dependency on oil from the Middle East. Culture is incredibly important in shaping economic outcomes. If a culture shares the same values concerning the economy, it is more likely to succeed. Take, for example, the United States. In America, there is strong pro-capitalism sentiment, and heavy anti-communism/socialism sentiment. This began at the end of World War II and intensified during the Cold War. This effects the countries we trade with and to what extent we will trade with them. Also, Americans value individualism and hard work for economic gain. These cultural values are economically efficient for the United States. Furthermore, religious organizations play a large part in American society and perpetuate economic values. Shweder himself stated that the most homogeneous societies are the most egalitarian.